Pyat makes a political prediction!

[pyat]

I predict John McCain will probably win the election down south, though perhaps by an inconcievably narrow margin. It strikes me that both sides draw support from very stratified classes of voters, and the numbers don't change much. (I ignore, for now, the possibility of coordinated voting fraud, though I do not think it a zany conspiracy theory. That sort of thing happens around the world, all the time.)

That said, choosing Palin as a veep will at least make the shallower sort of Republican happier about voting for McCain, because she's young(ish) and personable, and has never, ever sang "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann".

Comments

[zenten.livejournal.com]

I hope you're wrong, but I'm afraid you're not.

[neebs.livejournal.com]

This made me LOL: "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann"

[pyat.livejournal.com]

It'd be funnier if it weren't true. :)
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/blogs/politicalticker/2007/04/mccain-sings-bomb-bomb-iran.html

[momentrabbit.livejournal.com]

And she'll make the anti-science crowd happy, too. So that's something.

[madmanofprague.livejournal.com]

Anti-paleobiology. Rocket science still gets lots of funding!

[zorinlynx.livejournal.com]

Really, REALLY hoping you're wrong. I'm so tired of the GOP and their destructive policies.

I'm also tired of their followers who believe all the doom and gloom bullshit that the talk radio hosts and conservative bloggers put out.

Conservatives by definition are afraid of anything different.

Sigh.

[pwned-kisa.livejournal.com]

**noticeably remains quiet** Good kittens!

[pyat.livejournal.com]

Naw, you can mew about stuff if you want.

Me, I'd vote for Obama if I lived down there.

[vandringar.livejournal.com]

I've been really surprised here in Texas; I've only seen one bumper sticker supporing McCain, but about 8 supporting Obama.

[mar2nee.livejournal.com]

So, are you excited for the Canadian election that looks like it will be before the American one, then?
For all intents and purposes, we have a 2-party system, too, and need democratic reforms.
The Tommy Douglas video was fun, thanks. Westerners are a super bunch. Nutty reformers.

[mar2nee.livejournal.com]

I mean that very affectionately. I'm from out West, and my mom often starts new political parties - literally.

[pyat.livejournal.com]

I am pretty excited, not least because calling an earlier election date would reflect badly on Prime Minister Whatshisname, given his promise to stick to firm election dates.

[dagoski.livejournal.com]

The big, big wild card is the youth vote. They don't typically turn out in numbers even for general elections during presidential years. As for primary elections, in this country you typically only see people over 40 in those and the younger of that crowd are often thinking about running for office themselves. This year's primary election was crazy. The elections previously at my precinct only draw the retired people from the neighborhood. But this primary had high school kids who'd just turned 18 when I went to vote. In all my years dutifully voting, I have never seen 18-20 year olds pulling the lever. If Obama can turn out younger voters, he'll win in a landslide. Like I said, it's very iffy.

[rentagurkha.livejournal.com]

While I'm not confident enough to predict the outcome, this choice on McCain's part says that he thinks he's losing badly.

Palin is a high-risk choice. She looks good on paper but has no political experience to speak of. She also undermines the main argument of McCain's campaign to date (there's no way you can claim that Obama is too inexperienced to be president and then pick her as VP). It also puts the spotlight back on McCain's age which is not where he wants it.

It's possible that she's a natural pro and will be way more effective than I would expect. But she could also be the next Dan Quayle, except that Dan Quayle had more political experience. He's just bet his entire campaign on her performance. That's not the action of a man who thinks he's going to win otherwise.

[thebitterguy]

Have I mentioned how much I miss your political blog?

[leonard-arlotte.livejournal.com]

Myself, I generally avoid talking politics on the web. I just
can't ever get a fair shake as I am outnumbered by the
Competition.
as for third parties,
i really don't think there is a good
non-crazy one out there.

[pyat.livejournal.com]

I just can't ever get a fair shake as I am outnumbered by the Competition.

You can't go wrong stating what it is you believe in, and stating clearly why the other fellow is wrong. On FM, at least, you mainly seem to just say that you're sick of left-wingers ranting about right-wingers. The discussion is generally one about respective attack ads, something someone else said in support of a candidate or party.

I don't think I've ever seen you offer counter arguments that addressed actual Democratic policies, or reasons why you support your candidate, or even whether or not you support a candidate. And, I stress to say, I have never seen you do so. For all I know, you actively talk about it elsewhere, or when I'm not around.

[mrs-dm.livejournal.com]

I hope to God you're wrong Pyat, but I fear you may be right. With the electoral map the way it is, I'm starting to wonder whether it's even possible for a Democrat to win a general election. They say it will come down to Florida and Michigan, the very states that were pissed off by the Hillary Clinton debacle. Particularly in Florida, it comes down to the Cuban-American and Jewish-American votes. I think if Obama gets Joe Biden and Bill Clinton to do some heavy campaigning in those states, he may have a chance.

I agree with the other blogger that the youth vote may be the spoiler. It makes you wonder how accurate these polls are that put McCain and Obama at both 47%. How do they conduct these polls? Does anyone under 35 actually answer their phone on a Saturday night? If you have call display, why would you even answer a 1-800 number?

[kisekileia.livejournal.com]

Other factor in those phone polls: Do they call cells? Lots of people under 35 have a cell as their primary phone.

[kisekileia.livejournal.com]

I have a bad feeling you could be right, and it scares the crap out of me. Like others, I'm really hoping youth turn out en masse for Obama. I'm worried that too many idealists have gotten disenchanted with Obama already--there really needs to be a grassroots awareness among young idealists that even though Obama's not perfect, McCain would be a hell of a lot worse, and therefore THEY NEED TO VOTE.

I'm worried about the choice of Palin as a running mate, because it's very strategic. There are a LOT of Hillary Clinton supporters (I've seen 50% quoted) who won't vote for Obama, and some of them may go over to McCain due to him having a woman on his ticket. Plus, Palin's got Assemblies of God connections, which may bring more evangelicals on side. Scary.

[mrs-dm.livejournal.com]

I've been watching the political punditry on CNN all evening, and from all accounts, few Hillary supporters will be voting for McCain because of Palin (anti-abortion, evangelical etc). The Democrat pundits all point out Palin's inexperience on global issues (rightly so) and the Republican pundits praise her reformer status (who knows). But NO ONE dares point out what seems to be the strangest factor in my motherly mind. She has a FOUR-MONTH OLD BABY, with Down's Syndrome no less. Now, I'm not a social conservative by any means, but from a psychological point of view, should she really be on the national campaign trail right now? It just seems unhealthy, for mother-child bonding etc.

[paka.livejournal.com]

Oh, definitely. I know southerners, I'm from Georgia.

We're incredibly indoctrinated, and then you throw in bias in the mainstream media, and anything the churches may be telling would be voters. I know that not just southerners, but a lot of Americans want to convince themselves that Dubya was a mistake and the Republicans are still worthwhile anyway, and that they can go out and vote for McCain with a clear conscience, so they will seize any reason to vote against Obama, no matter how flimsy or irrational. Democrat candidate? Dark skin? Weird name? Rumors of being a *gasp* Moslem? Obviously more intelligent than a brick? Not properly pro-gun or anti-Gay or pro-abortion or religiously Christian enough? Anything will work for these people, anything at all.

I don't really buy in to all the whole hope and change stuff. I'd love to, and when I hear Obama making his speeches, I want to believe in him with every bit of my mind and my spirit. I can't, however, I'm too cynical.

But what I do know is that if McCain wins - and frankly I think that's what's going to happen - it'll be a fucking disaster, and by comparison if Obama wins by some chance, at worst it'll be business as usual.

[redeem147.livejournal.com]

Please be wrong, please be wrong, please be wrong...

[bodhifox.livejournal.com]

Now, since you eldest and my Bear looked so much alike when they were younger, that means I'm probably related to your wife, distantly. Does that mean we can use you as a reference to move up to the GWN? Or do I have to find a Canadian girl crazy enough to marry me?

[madmanofprague.livejournal.com]

Just come up here for a vacation and stay, dude.

[foomf.livejournal.com]

You are doubtless unaware from your distance across that border, having few random person to person conversations with our voting public, just how profoundly disgusted so many Americans are with the Current Regime, and just how little they will tolerate another four years of the same thing. I have had people tell me that they voted for Bush in 2004 and that they would never vote Republican again.

There has been an unprecedented increase in voter registration and in voter participation, starting in 2004 and increasing dramatically with the recent primaries, at least in western states.

[saomigray.livejournal.com]

Living in Birmingham, I don't know many people who like McCain, mostly because the ones that do tend not to be my kind of people. Still, there is much more to the South than Birmingham, and I am afraid you may be right.

*blech*