Pyat makes a political prediction!

[pyat]

I predict John McCain will probably win the election down south, though perhaps by an inconcievably narrow margin. It strikes me that both sides draw support from very stratified classes of voters, and the numbers don't change much. (I ignore, for now, the possibility of coordinated voting fraud, though I do not think it a zany conspiracy theory. That sort of thing happens around the world, all the time.)

That said, choosing Palin as a veep will at least make the shallower sort of Republican happier about voting for McCain, because she's young(ish) and personable, and has never, ever sang "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann".

Comments

[thebitterguy]

Have I mentioned how much I miss your political blog?

[rentagurkha.livejournal.com]

No, but I appreciate it. I have a feeling that I'll be posting at POGGe (http://www.pogge.ca) soon enough, though, with the election looming.

In the meantime, it looks like today is confirming my guess. This little quote sums the day up nicely:

Mr. McCain’s advisers said Friday that Mr. McCain was well aware that Ms. Palin would be criticized for her lack of foreign policy experience, but that he viewed her as exceptionally talented and intelligent and that he felt she would be able to be educated quickly.

“She’s going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he’ll be around at least that long,” said Charlie Black, one of Mr. McCain’s top advisers, making light of concerns about Mr. McCain’s health, which Mr. McCain’s doctors reported as excellent in May.

It looks like she was a last minute choice. McCain really wanted Lieberman but was convinced the Republicans wouldn't stand for it, and so he jumped to her. Problem is that she's not been properly vetted, and a lot of negative stuff is popping up, including the fact that she's under an ethics investigation in Alaska. That's likely to kill the positive buzz McCain was hoping to get, and given that he had to dump his best attack on Obama to put her on the ticket, that's not good news for him.

Plus there's Gustav which is likely to hit the US during the Republican convention, with all the memories of Katrina that brings back.

There are no sure things in politics, but the McCain campaign looks like a group that's not feeling positive about it's chances. Plus which you have to remember Obama's speech last night--very effective (even Pat Buchanan loved it) and it was watched by 38 million Americans. Obama's coming out of the Democratic convention with AT LEAST a 10 point lead over McCain, and Palin isn't turning that around.