Pyat makes a political prediction!

[pyat]

I predict John McCain will probably win the election down south, though perhaps by an inconcievably narrow margin. It strikes me that both sides draw support from very stratified classes of voters, and the numbers don't change much. (I ignore, for now, the possibility of coordinated voting fraud, though I do not think it a zany conspiracy theory. That sort of thing happens around the world, all the time.)

That said, choosing Palin as a veep will at least make the shallower sort of Republican happier about voting for McCain, because she's young(ish) and personable, and has never, ever sang "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann".

Comments

[mrs-dm.livejournal.com]

I hope to God you're wrong Pyat, but I fear you may be right. With the electoral map the way it is, I'm starting to wonder whether it's even possible for a Democrat to win a general election. They say it will come down to Florida and Michigan, the very states that were pissed off by the Hillary Clinton debacle. Particularly in Florida, it comes down to the Cuban-American and Jewish-American votes. I think if Obama gets Joe Biden and Bill Clinton to do some heavy campaigning in those states, he may have a chance.

I agree with the other blogger that the youth vote may be the spoiler. It makes you wonder how accurate these polls are that put McCain and Obama at both 47%. How do they conduct these polls? Does anyone under 35 actually answer their phone on a Saturday night? If you have call display, why would you even answer a 1-800 number?

[kisekileia.livejournal.com]

Other factor in those phone polls: Do they call cells? Lots of people under 35 have a cell as their primary phone.

[dagoski.livejournal.com]

I think a Democrat win is very possible. Typically, dems take the states with big populations(and a lot of electoral votes) and lose the more rural states. All it takes is one or two states to flip their recent voting patterns. I think the key swing state this year is going to be Virginia. That's state's demographics have changed a lot as the DC Megalopolis has grown on the VA side.

Also, pollsters are wondering how their accurate their traditional methods are this year with so many people ditching their landlines. And it's not just younger people doing that either. I know here in the Dagoski household, we may not get a landline in the next place we live and I'll be 40 in a couple of months.