Pyat makes a political prediction!

[pyat]

I predict John McCain will probably win the election down south, though perhaps by an inconcievably narrow margin. It strikes me that both sides draw support from very stratified classes of voters, and the numbers don't change much. (I ignore, for now, the possibility of coordinated voting fraud, though I do not think it a zany conspiracy theory. That sort of thing happens around the world, all the time.)

That said, choosing Palin as a veep will at least make the shallower sort of Republican happier about voting for McCain, because she's young(ish) and personable, and has never, ever sang "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann".

Comments

[dagoski.livejournal.com]

The big, big wild card is the youth vote. They don't typically turn out in numbers even for general elections during presidential years. As for primary elections, in this country you typically only see people over 40 in those and the younger of that crowd are often thinking about running for office themselves. This year's primary election was crazy. The elections previously at my precinct only draw the retired people from the neighborhood. But this primary had high school kids who'd just turned 18 when I went to vote. In all my years dutifully voting, I have never seen 18-20 year olds pulling the lever. If Obama can turn out younger voters, he'll win in a landslide. Like I said, it's very iffy.